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One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.

Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.

What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.

So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.

#1

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.

The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.

seaboardist , Anna Shvets Report

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    #3

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More extreme weather events.

    Left-Middle7392 , Johannes Plenio Report

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    Freya the Wanderer
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.

    S Bow
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    It was 117 degrees (47.22 C) today in Phoenix. Unprecedented for this time of year

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    Lou Cam
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Don't worry, as the extreme weather escalates and half the world becomes uninhabitable, they'll be an apocalyptic war over the remaining resources that'll wipe us all out before the storms kill us all.

    Cee Cee
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Serious droughts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia. Flooding and landslides in Nepal, Pakistan, wildfires across the Patanal etc etc. It's not all about America.

    Anxiety Panda
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Today is Sunday. Helene was Thursday and Friday. People still have no power and 6 feet of standing water in their living room. Perhaps a bit of compassion today?

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    bElLa sTairZz
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    where i am got its first ever tornado this year... never even heard of one in our country before this

    Jp
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Sea level flooding on the coast is one type but it recedes. The real flood issue isn’t on the coast. It’s inland a bit. Basically where everyone lives. The sea level raises the ground water table so if you don’t get seepage up through to your property the rain can’t go down. If you research Pliocene/Pleistocene Florida you can see how the entire southwest and western coast were both a inland sea and grassland

    Eric Johansen
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Well I don't know if this has to do with the weather but I recently read that the melting glaciers in Alaska is now releasing mercury that has been dormant in the ice for thousands of years into the water resources.

    EJN
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Absolutely. Floridians will be treading water by then.

    Ormond Otvos
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Florida believes you. Now...and it's over 200 deaths and another on the way tomorrow.

    Marguerite Barnett
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Now i'm prepping for Milton. We've had two 1000 year events within the last 4 months lol.

    iseefractals
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    This one has already played out. A few years ago climate researchers compiled the entirety of the planets historical weather data, and plugged it into a model to predict what the consequences of the rising global temperature, and higher GHG concentrations would do to weather patterns by 2050, the widely touted "point of no return" for getting our emissions in check. This was in 2020, and it only took 18 months for the modeling data to start proving out to be completely accurate.....just off by about 28 years. We already appear to be at the point of catastrophic failure...and a whole bunch of people just keep throwing fuel on the fire exacerbating the problem.

    LynzCatastrophe
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    This isn't a prediction, it's a guarantee. The winters are more unpredictable than the year before, the summers are hotter every year, that hurricane traveled quite far. I could continue. Yet the climate deniers are stubborn in their beliefs because the earth has been through it before without man-made help. Yes, it has. But the thing is, do you actually WANT to experience it all? Because it all will happen, and if you survive, you will be left with nothing, to try to rebuild just enough to live a basic life. Whether it happened in the past or not is irrelevant, but you will be experiencing it. You may not survive it.

    Luna
    Community Member
    2 months ago

    This comment is hidden. Click here to view.

    OMG we'll continue to have weather??!!

    Charlotte
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    When 200 year storms start cropping up every decade it's a bit more than just "weather"

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    Manana Man
    Community Member
    2 months ago

    This comment is hidden. Click here to view.

    The IPCC gives 'low confidence' to the idea of increases in extreme weather. But one thing we do know. the world has gotten a little warmer and little wetter. So that's hellish.

    General Anaesthesia
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Say what? "The IPCC has “very high confidence” that the risks and adverse impacts from climate change will escalate with increasing global warming."

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    #4

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.

    000-Luck , Kampus Production Report

    #5

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Resource wars.

    RVBlumensaat , cottonbro studio Report

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    Angela B
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    This. Countries at war over water, food supply and the like. Ppl going to Mars at war over mining rights there too. Do you want any of the douche billion-aires in control of your oxygen on Mars? Nah.

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    #6

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.

    zerbey , Pixabay Report

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    Chris
    Community Member
    2 months ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    What? All you have to do is what the governor of Florida did and get a a law passed that no state government official/document can use the words "climate change", and everything will be OK. /S

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    #7

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.

    johnnybiggles , freepik Report

    #8

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The retirement age will have gone up again.

    Petrus_Rock , Pixabay Report

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    Orysha
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    There will be no retirement age, you'll be forced to work until death unless you're rich.

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    #11

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World War 3

    I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.

    We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
    Climate Change

    Water/Food SHortage

    Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)

    AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).

    Lephas , asim alnamat Report

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    #12

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.

    My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.

    **All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.

    Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.

    Hayred , Edward Jenner Report

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    #14

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.

    Cinner21 , Pixabay Report

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    Beak Hookage
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.

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    #15

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.

    OnceWasRampant , Pixabay Report

    #16

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.

    MudNo6683 , RF._.studio Report

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    Lou Cam
    Community Member
    2 months ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.

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    #17

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.

    TheJewHammer14 , Jorge Zapata Report

    #18

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Political tensions will increase over climate migration.

    DiscountCultural5520 , Rosemary Ketchum Report

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    Freya the Wanderer
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.

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    #19

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.

    sketchy_painting , Vidal Balielo Jr. Report

    #20

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The rich, getting richer.

    urandomguy , freepik Report

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    Steve Robert
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.

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    #21

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some animals going extinct.

    giuli_wild , Laura The Explaura Report

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    G A
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Animals and plants go extinct daily. It's just you don't notice as they are small.

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    #22

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We’ll all be using tech that seems like sci-fi now.

    deinekimfischer , cottonbro studio Report

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    Zephyr343
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Isn't that usually how the progress of tech goes? Hard to see it moving backwards

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    #23

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People reminiscing that life was better 30 years ago.

    Dr-Maturin , SHVETS production Report

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    #25

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.

    pixiemiooy , Cats Coming Report

    #26

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.

    Nice_Leg_7622 , freepik Report

    #27

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.

    Best_Barracuda451 , Molnár Tamás Photography™ Report

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    liam newton-harding
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    “Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.

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    #28

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World hunger, food deficit.

    True_beauty00 , cottonbro studio Report

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    Fishpanda (fish/panda/it)
    Community Member
    2 months ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.

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    #29

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.

    ForeverRepulsive2934 , Leena Report

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    Griffy
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Google- A wet bulb event is a dangerous combination of high heat and humidity that can cause people to overheat and die. The wet bulb effect occurs when the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C or higher, and the humidity is very high.

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    #30

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.

    lacaxiqekifika , Tom Swinnen Report

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    #31

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.

    BinaryPill , Lara Jameson Report

    #32

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.

    Budget_Marionberry78 , eberhard grossgasteiger Report

    #33

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More people will live in vertical farms.

    MichelleHill770e2 , freepik Report

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    G A
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    People will have their own as long as water resources keep up.

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    #35

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Let's be a bit optimistic

    Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
    Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
    Working on ultraportable virtual screens
    Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
    Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
    True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
    Modular nuclear reactors
    Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
    Nuclear fusion?
    Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.

    Glxblt76 , ThisIsEngineering Report

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    #36

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People will still be complaining about something.

    Vikinggold672021 , benzoix Report

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    Skara Brae
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.

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    #37

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.

    Willy_cutie_ , Anna Shvets Report

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    Freya the Wanderer
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.

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    #38

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.

    giligili__ , Pixabay Report

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    Sky Render
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.

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    #42

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Me getting married.

    I have faith.

    lan0028456 , Emma Bauso Report

    #43

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

    KmetPalca , Mario Spencer Report

    #44

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Technology getting even weirder than it already is.

    VibrantTaro , Harsch Shivam Report

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    Tabitha
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    What matters most is how it ends up being used. If used to benefit us all, OK. If used to destroy most of us, f**k NO.

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    #45

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.

    schneebitch , Ahmed akacha Report

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    Freya the Wanderer
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.

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    #47

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Fusion power plants being 30 years away.

    inkseep1 , Johannes Plenio Report

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    #51

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality All dogs currently alive will be dead, so do something special for your pooch!

    JMJimmy , Edgar Daniel Hernández Cervantes Report

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    #52

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I dunno but I know I still ain't be able to retire by then.

    Nyarro , Centre for Ageing Better Report

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    Toothless Feline
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Gen X and younger are, for the most part, never going to have anything resembling the retirement older generations have.

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    #53

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 1. The era of Trump will end as he dies

    2. Semi-‘sentient’ A.I.

    3. China economic/demographic crisis

    4. A new group of companies will evolve or merge and dethrone FAANG.

    ManifestCartoon , Priya Karkare Report

    #54

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Automation will reshape the service industry.

    WeaknessHot2054 , ThisIsEngineering Report

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    Jayeff Vee
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Hooray! Then the poor, starving homeless people will have more leisure time!

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    #55

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Work-life balance will continue to shift.

    AttemptBest3777 , Ketut Subiyanto Report

    #56

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Space tourism will become more affordable.

    thomasedwards0504k , Edvin Richardson Report

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    Justme
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Really? Can we make groceries, education, and housing more affordable first?

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    #57

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The sharing economy will keep expanding.

    takocahumaxay6562 , Gustavo Guedes Report

    #59

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be a function on the new iPhone that we didn't realize we needed but can't live without.

    littlemiss_dark , Jessica Lewis 🦋 thepaintedsquare Report

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    #62

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We might be on the moon by that time.

    Little_babyy69 , luizclas Report

    #63

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 1%=free healthcare in america.

    Soft_peggy , Pixabay Report

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    Tabitha
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Taxing the 1% as they should be, no loopholes, no more tax breaks allowed = funds free healthcare in the US.

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    #64

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Augmented reality will become commonplace.

    Majestic_Point_3504 , fauxels Report

    #67

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The earth will make 29 rotations around the sun and then some.

    Blizzox , Bogdan Dirică Report

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    Toothless Feline
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Revolutions, not rotations. Earth revolves around Sol and rotates about its own axis.

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    #68

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality AI replaces all entry-level jobs.

    thederakoo , Alex Knight Report

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    Zephyr343
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    Doubt. Entry level laborer technical jobs? Like electricians or plumbers?

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    #69

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality AI-generated art will flourish.

    No-Survey-3861 , freepik Report

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    Sand Ers
    Community Member
    2 months ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

    If it’s “AI generated”, it’s not art. Just an elaborate copy/paste algorithm.

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    #70

    50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Hopefully Nintendo will show the Switch 2 by then. :D.

    th3lucas , Polina Tankilevitch Report

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