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One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.

Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.

What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.

So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.

This post may include affiliate links.

#1

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.

The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.

seaboardist , Anna Shvets Report

Final score:
213points
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#2

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Whoever is reading this finding happiness.

Automatic-Prompt-450 , Belle Co Report

Final score:
171points
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#3

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More extreme weather events.

Left-Middle7392 , Johannes Plenio Report

Final score:
169points
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Freya the Wanderer
Freya the Wanderer
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.

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#4

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.

000-Luck , Kampus Production Report

Final score:
166points
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MissMePhoenix
MissMePhoenix
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1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I really hope so too. Its heart-breaking how many have to suffer.

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#5

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Resource wars.

RVBlumensaat , cottonbro studio Report

Final score:
137points
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Angela B
Angela B
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

This. Countries at war over water, food supply and the like. Ppl going to Mars at war over mining rights there too. Do you want any of the douche billion-aires in control of your oxygen on Mars? Nah.

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#6

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.

zerbey , Pixabay Report

Final score:
122points
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Chris
Chris
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1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What? All you have to do is what the governor of Florida did and get a a law passed that no state government official/document can use the words "climate change", and everything will be OK. /S

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#7

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.

johnnybiggles , freepik Report

Final score:
114points
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#8

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The retirement age will have gone up again.

Petrus_Rock , Pixabay Report

Final score:
113points
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Orysha
Orysha
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

There will be no retirement age, you'll be forced to work until death unless you're rich.

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#9

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Flooding will displace millions worldwide.

JosephYoungr33ou , GEORGE DESIPRIS Report

Final score:
111points
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#10

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People in this thread being wrong.

theintrovert48 , wayhomestudio Report

Final score:
108points
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#11

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World War 3

I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.

We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change

Water/Food SHortage

Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)

AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).

Lephas , asim alnamat Report

Final score:
108points
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#12

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.

My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.

**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.

Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.

Hayred , Edward Jenner Report

Final score:
104points
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Steve Robert
Steve Robert
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Nationalize Big Pharma and take the profit out of the picture.

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#13

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The rest of the movie Idiocracy.

smackmypony , Lê Minh Report

Final score:
100points
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#14

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.

Cinner21 , Pixabay Report

Final score:
89points
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Beak Hookage
Beak Hookage
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.

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#15

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.

OnceWasRampant , Pixabay Report

Final score:
86points
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#16

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.

MudNo6683 , RF._.studio Report

Final score:
86points
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Lou Cam
Lou Cam
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1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.

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#17

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.

TheJewHammer14 , Jorge Zapata Report

Final score:
85points
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#18

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Political tensions will increase over climate migration.

DiscountCultural5520 , Rosemary Ketchum Report

Final score:
84points
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Freya the Wanderer
Freya the Wanderer
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.

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#19

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.

sketchy_painting , Vidal Balielo Jr. Report

Final score:
72points
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#20

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The rich, getting richer.

urandomguy , freepik Report

Final score:
70points
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Steve Robert
Steve Robert
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.

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#21

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some animals going extinct.

giuli_wild , Laura The Explaura Report

Final score:
69points
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G A
G A
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Animals and plants go extinct daily. It's just you don't notice as they are small.

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#22

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We’ll all be using tech that seems like sci-fi now.

deinekimfischer , cottonbro studio Report

Final score:
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Zephyr343
Zephyr343
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Isn't that usually how the progress of tech goes? Hard to see it moving backwards

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#23

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People reminiscing that life was better 30 years ago.

Dr-Maturin , SHVETS production Report

Final score:
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#24

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Space debris will be a problem.

AlbatrossFickle4894 , Abdullah Toppınar Report

Final score:
62points
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#25

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.

pixiemiooy , Cats Coming Report

Final score:
61points
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#26

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.

Nice_Leg_7622 , freepik Report

Final score:
57points
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#27

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.

Best_Barracuda451 , Molnár Tamás Photography™ Report

Final score:
57points
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liam newton-harding
liam newton-harding
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

“Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.

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#28

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World hunger, food deficit.

True_beauty00 , cottonbro studio Report

Final score:
55points
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Fishpanda (fish/panda/it)
Fishpanda (fish/panda/it)
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1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.

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#29

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.

ForeverRepulsive2934 , Leena Report

Final score:
53points
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Griffy
Griffy
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Google- A wet bulb event is a dangerous combination of high heat and humidity that can cause people to overheat and die. The wet bulb effect occurs when the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C or higher, and the humidity is very high.

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#30

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.

lacaxiqekifika , Tom Swinnen Report

Final score:
51points
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#31

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.

BinaryPill , Lara Jameson Report

Final score:
49points
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#32

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.

Budget_Marionberry78 , eberhard grossgasteiger Report

Final score:
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#33

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More people will live in vertical farms.

MichelleHill770e2 , freepik Report

Final score:
47points
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G A
G A
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

People will have their own as long as water resources keep up.

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#34

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality No more polar ice caps.

shackelman_unchained , Jean-Christophe André Report

Final score:
47points
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#35

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Let's be a bit optimistic

Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.

Glxblt76 , ThisIsEngineering Report

Final score:
45points
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#36

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People will still be complaining about something.

Vikinggold672021 , benzoix Report

Final score:
45points
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Skara Brae
Skara Brae
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.

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#37

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.

Willy_cutie_ , Anna Shvets Report

Final score:
44points
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Freya the Wanderer
Freya the Wanderer
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.

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#38

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.

giligili__ , Pixabay Report

Final score:
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Sky Render
Sky Render
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.

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#39

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More subscription services.

AccumulatedFilth , rawpixel.com Report

Final score:
42points
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#40

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The first man on Mars.

Appropriate_Solid532 , SpaceX Report

Final score:
38points
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#41

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Mental health will become a focus.

WonderEnough3570 , Elīna Arāja Report

Final score:
36points
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#42

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Me getting married.

I have faith.

lan0028456 , Emma Bauso Report

Final score:
35points
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#43

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

KmetPalca , Mario Spencer Report

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35points
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#44

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Technology getting even weirder than it already is.

VibrantTaro , Harsch Shivam Report

Final score:
35points
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Tabitha
Tabitha
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What matters most is how it ends up being used. If used to benefit us all, OK. If used to destroy most of us, f**k NO.

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#45

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.

schneebitch , Ahmed akacha Report

Final score:
35points
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Freya the Wanderer
Freya the Wanderer
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.

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#46

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 8 of “the most important election of our lifetime”.

PixieBaronicsi , Element5 Digital Report

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#47

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Fusion power plants being 30 years away.

inkseep1 , Johannes Plenio Report

Final score:
28points
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#48

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Half-Life 3 won't be released.

Administrative_Ad93 , Matilda Wormwood Report

Final score:
27points
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#49

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People 70 and above today will die.

tacknosaddle , Mario Wallner Report

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19points
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#50

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another sequel to Frozen.

god-ducks-are-cute , freepik Report

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19points
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#51

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality All dogs currently alive will be dead, so do something special for your pooch!

JMJimmy , Edgar Daniel Hernández Cervantes Report

Final score:
15points
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#52

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I dunno but I know I still ain't be able to retire by then.

Nyarro , Centre for Ageing Better Report

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15points
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Toothless Feline
Toothless Feline
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Gen X and younger are, for the most part, never going to have anything resembling the retirement older generations have.

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#53

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 1. The era of Trump will end as he dies

2. Semi-‘sentient’ A.I.

3. China economic/demographic crisis

4. A new group of companies will evolve or merge and dethrone FAANG.

ManifestCartoon , Priya Karkare Report

Final score:
14points
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#54

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Automation will reshape the service industry.

WeaknessHot2054 , ThisIsEngineering Report

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14points
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Jayeff Vee
Jayeff Vee
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Hooray! Then the poor, starving homeless people will have more leisure time!

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#55

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Work-life balance will continue to shift.

AttemptBest3777 , Ketut Subiyanto Report

Final score:
14points
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#56

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Space tourism will become more affordable.

thomasedwards0504k , Edvin Richardson Report

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13points
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Justme
Justme
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Really? Can we make groceries, education, and housing more affordable first?

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#57

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The sharing economy will keep expanding.

takocahumaxay6562 , Gustavo Guedes Report

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13points
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Zephyr343
Zephyr343
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

More like the taking economy. Taking more, giving back less

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#58

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Many animal species going extinct.

deppaa_depa , Richard Verbeek Report

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12points
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#59

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be a function on the new iPhone that we didn't realize we needed but can't live without.

littlemiss_dark , Jessica Lewis 🦋 thepaintedsquare Report

Final score:
11points
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Deb M.F.
Deb M.F.
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Yeah..making it turn into an Android phone! 😅😅😅🤣🤣

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#60

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I'll be dead.

Secure_Adagio1754 , Mike Bird Report

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11points
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#61

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 2000 Pokémon.

Opening-Chapter-9086 , Anton Report

Final score:
10points
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#62

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We might be on the moon by that time.

Little_babyy69 , luizclas Report

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10points
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#63

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality 1%=free healthcare in america.

Soft_peggy , Pixabay Report

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Tabitha
Tabitha
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Taxing the 1% as they should be, no loopholes, no more tax breaks allowed = funds free healthcare in the US.

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#64

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Augmented reality will become commonplace.

Majestic_Point_3504 , fauxels Report

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#65

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Virtual reality will be mainstream.

Careful_Total_4144 , Sebastian Voortman Report

Final score:
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#66

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Virtual worlds will grow.

AccomplishedMix769 , Darlene Alderson Report

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8points
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#67

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The earth will make 29 rotations around the sun and then some.

Blizzox , Bogdan Dirică Report

Final score:
7points
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Toothless Feline
Toothless Feline
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Revolutions, not rotations. Earth revolves around Sol and rotates about its own axis.

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#68

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality AI replaces all entry-level jobs.

thederakoo , Alex Knight Report

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6points
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Zephyr343
Zephyr343
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Doubt. Entry level laborer technical jobs? Like electricians or plumbers?

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#69

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality AI-generated art will flourish.

No-Survey-3861 , freepik Report

Final score:
5points
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Sand Ers
Sand Ers
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

If it’s “AI generated”, it’s not art. Just an elaborate copy/paste algorithm.

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#70

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Hopefully Nintendo will show the Switch 2 by then. :D.

th3lucas , Polina Tankilevitch Report

Final score:
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