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50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.
Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.
What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.
So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.
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#1
A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.
The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.
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#2
Whoever is reading this finding happiness.
#3
More extreme weather events.
Freya the Wanderer 2 months ago
We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.
#4
There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.
MissMePhoenix 2 months ago (edited)
I really hope so too. Its heart-breaking how many have to suffer.
#6
Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.
#7
I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.
#9
Flooding will displace millions worldwide.
#10
People in this thread being wrong.
#11
World War 3
I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.
We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change
Water/Food SHortage
Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)
AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).
#12
We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.
My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.
**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.
Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.
#14
The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.
Beak Hookage 2 months ago
To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.
#15
A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.
#16
The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.
Lou Cam 2 months ago (edited)
And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.
#17
If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.
#18
Political tensions will increase over climate migration.
Freya the Wanderer 2 months ago
No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.
#19
The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.
#20
The rich, getting richer.
Steve Robert 2 months ago
That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.
#25
My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.
#26
More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.
#27
Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.
liam newton-harding 2 months ago
“Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.
#28
World hunger, food deficit.
Fishpanda (fish/panda/it) 2 months ago (edited)
However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.
#29
Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.
#30
Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.
Freya the Wanderer 2 months ago
Thank you for your optimism. You can help that come true by voting!
#31
Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.
#32
Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.
#35
Let's be a bit optimistic
Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.
#36
People will still be complaining about something.
Skara Brae 2 months ago
Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.
#37
Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.
Freya the Wanderer 2 months ago
Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.
#38
Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.
Sky Render 2 months ago
I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.
#41
Mental health will become a focus.
#45
The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.
Freya the Wanderer 2 months ago
I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.
#47
Fusion power plants being 30 years away.
#49
People 70 and above today will die.
#50
Another sequel to Frozen.
What do you think ?
frank behnsen 2 months ago (edited)
I’m afraid so. But on the other hand, for some people this could result in a boost of creativity in using their computer keyboards. Simple as fück/f**k/fork/fnck, etc. ain’t it? (I’m sooo much looking forward to listening to Eric Idle sing again «Fück Christmas». That’s my all-time favourite “seasonal” song. ;–) [Edit: F**k my MacBook Pro’s keyboard. It definitely wasn’t made for the hands of a finger-style bass player, so screw ‘em.
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Anxiety Panda 2 months ago
I'll still accidentally swipe to the side and lose my place in one of these threads when I'm nearly at the end.
Kangaroo 2 months ago
Or accidentally click someone’s username while scrolling and get redirected to their profile 😅
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bElLa sTairZz 2 months ago
were more durable than that, were incredibly adaptable, and the more addaptable something is the harder it is to drive it to extinction. we likely wont go extinct in even 50 years, but we will be living a strange half life at worst
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frank behnsen 2 months ago (edited)
I’m afraid so. But on the other hand, for some people this could result in a boost of creativity in using their computer keyboards. Simple as fück/f**k/fork/fnck, etc. ain’t it? (I’m sooo much looking forward to listening to Eric Idle sing again «Fück Christmas». That’s my all-time favourite “seasonal” song. ;–) [Edit: F**k my MacBook Pro’s keyboard. It definitely wasn’t made for the hands of a finger-style bass player, so screw ‘em.
Load More Replies... Anxiety Panda 2 months ago
I'll still accidentally swipe to the side and lose my place in one of these threads when I'm nearly at the end.
Kangaroo 2 months ago
Or accidentally click someone’s username while scrolling and get redirected to their profile 😅
Load More Replies... bElLa sTairZz 2 months ago
were more durable than that, were incredibly adaptable, and the more addaptable something is the harder it is to drive it to extinction. we likely wont go extinct in even 50 years, but we will be living a strange half life at worst
Load More Replies...
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