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50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.
Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.
What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.
So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.
This post may include affiliate links.
#1
A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.
The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.
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#2
Whoever is reading this finding happiness.
#3
More extreme weather events.
Freya the Wanderer 1 month ago
We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.
#4
There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.
MissMePhoenix 1 month ago (edited)
I really hope so too. Its heart-breaking how many have to suffer.
#6
Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.
#7
I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.
#9
Flooding will displace millions worldwide.
#10
People in this thread being wrong.
#11
World War 3
I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.
We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change
Water/Food SHortage
Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)
AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).
#12
We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.
My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.
**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.
Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.
#14
The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.
Beak Hookage 1 month ago
To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.
#15
A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.
#16
The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.
Lou Cam 1 month ago (edited)
And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.
#17
If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.
#18
Political tensions will increase over climate migration.
Freya the Wanderer 1 month ago
No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.
#19
The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.
#20
The rich, getting richer.
Steve Robert 1 month ago
That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.
#25
My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.
#26
More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.
#27
Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.
liam newton-harding 1 month ago
“Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.
#28
World hunger, food deficit.
Fishpanda (fish/panda/it) 1 month ago (edited)
However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.
#29
Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.
#30
Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.
Freya the Wanderer 1 month ago
Thank you for your optimism. You can help that come true by voting!
#31
Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.
#32
Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.
#35
Let's be a bit optimistic
Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.
#36
People will still be complaining about something.
Skara Brae 1 month ago
Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.
#37
Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.
Freya the Wanderer 1 month ago
Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.
#38
Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.
Sky Render 1 month ago
I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.
#41
Mental health will become a focus.
#45
The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.
Freya the Wanderer 1 month ago
I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.
#47
Fusion power plants being 30 years away.
#49
People 70 and above today will die.
#50
Another sequel to Frozen.
What do you think ?
Anxiety Panda 1 month ago
I'll still accidentally swipe to the side and lose my place in one of these threads when I'm nearly at the end.
Livingwithcfs 1 month ago
30 years time? We'll be just as stupid as we are today because we will continue to fail to learn from our past mistakes
Jeanne 1 month ago
One big problem: breeding pets. Puppy mills and “responsible” breeding. It’s all contributing to horrific pet overpopulation. Shelter pets lose their chances of going to a forever home, every time someone buys a pet instead of adopting one. Millions lose their lives. Our shelters are full to the max. Until our shelters are empty (including no more homeless animals on our streets), all breeding should be illegal. Please adopt at petfinder online. Help cruel puppy mills close down. Spay and neuter.
BelleMendes 1 month ago
I still have hope that my generation will work like hell to try and undo all the s**t that the ones before us have made
LynzCatastrophe 1 month ago
A long slide away, the recourse war. It'll have more consequences than you know of, more than my comment. We'll be in trouble for climate change, food shortage, all that. Dying of lack of shelter, food, killing each other in war. But this planet does have a tipping point. Say we do happen to get a chance to try again. We will never get farther than the farm age. Recourses that allowed that evolution in history are already at a record breaking low. We need those if we ever get to try again, and we won't have it. This'll is be a thing centuries from now, but the future isn't sci-fi, it's more historic.
Randy Smith 1 month ago (edited)
There will continue to be enough housing to house all homeless people in the US, and enough food to feed every person there, and yet American society will continue to allow homelessness and starvation anyways
frank behnsen 1 month ago
I’ll be dead. That’s nowhere near the privilege of never even having existed, but it’s fine with me. Organic life and consciousness don’t go together very well. In fact this combination really sucks. The formula “Feed. Fück. Fade Away.” is definitely not my idea of fun.
Patty Panda 1 month ago
We will live like Star Trek depicts, where hunger and wars on earth are no longer, the environment is clean, we accept one another for who they are and for their capabilities, and we explore space. Minus Kahn, of course
MondoLogo 1 month ago (edited)
"The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun. Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us." - Ecclesiastes 1:9-10 AI is just a tool of change, which there have been since fire and the wheel. There will always be wars and rumors of war. Global warming may make the planet uninhabitable - for certain species. Even a nuclear war will leave the mountains and the oceans. Humanity is not the earth, we are just tenants, and we're not likely to get our damage deposit back.
Apatheist Account2 1 month ago
Things really don't change this quickly. 30 years ago - 1994? Is the world so different? Then before that, 1964, 1934 - of course there were changes, but never as advanced as sci-fi would lead you to expect. I expect the pace of change to step up now that we have the internet, but I don't expect it to keep accelerating.
CanadianDimes 1 month ago
Patrick Rothfuss will keep insisting he’s going to finish the name of the wind series in [insert year here] while never doing any actual writing.
Verena 1 month ago
Now it is revealed how easy Kia cars could be hacked, people still clinge to convenience. Convenience always comes with a high price, and most of the times people do realise too late that it is not only some poor nobody far away hit, but they themselves. Another example of old-fashioned beats modern: An 17 year old V70 is easier, safer and quicker to operate with the buttons than any modern electrificated car with screens only. https://www.vibilagare.se/english/physical-buttons-outperform-touchscreens-new-cars-test-finds . They are of course biased, but seen that the EU will demand that five core functions must be buttons, otherwise the safety rating will be lowered, there seems to be some truth in it.
Endcensorship 1 month ago
Deep fake will have destroyed politics by making it so you can trust anything you see
Chich 1 month ago
Not too much of a stretch to expect another Carrington level event. Huge solar storm that wipes out our electrical grid and most of the electronics. Wake up one morning and it will be "Welcome to 1735!" and no one knows how to do anything useful. A planet of beings whose main skill is (was) to stare at and tap on a f*****g screen.
Verena 1 month ago (edited)
Additionally to losing patience, humanity is very busy to make itself obsolete. AI is taking over, the reasoning is "nobody needs to do repetetive and dull jobs any more". The clever heads forget, that not everybody of the 8 billion people is smart as hell, and "dull and repetetive jobs" (whatever the definition is, most jobs are like this) are necessary to pay for housing, food, clothing and health. So if there are no jobs anymore, most humans are obsolete. So there is no reason at all in investing in life-lengthening measures and medication. We have enough AI in most countries, stop it.
Verena 1 month ago (edited)
Just this morning (it is morning here) I read an article in the papers about streaming taking over more and more, and that traditional tv is loosing ground. As result the Netflixens are raising their fees, making it more difficult to pay for it. The point of it: The people living in a modern world are getting addicted to convenience and getting immediately what they want. One neat thing one learned back then when a new episode was only on once a week, and only on that one moment, was patience. The only chance for binge watching where saturday morning cartoons (for the US, here tv didn't broadcast before 9, and then it was school stuff until 12) or after video cassettes were invented and affordable, watching pre-recorded tapes.
Anxiety Panda 1 month ago
I'll still accidentally swipe to the side and lose my place in one of these threads when I'm nearly at the end.
Livingwithcfs 1 month ago
30 years time? We'll be just as stupid as we are today because we will continue to fail to learn from our past mistakes
Jeanne 1 month ago
One big problem: breeding pets. Puppy mills and “responsible” breeding. It’s all contributing to horrific pet overpopulation. Shelter pets lose their chances of going to a forever home, every time someone buys a pet instead of adopting one. Millions lose their lives. Our shelters are full to the max. Until our shelters are empty (including no more homeless animals on our streets), all breeding should be illegal. Please adopt at petfinder online. Help cruel puppy mills close down. Spay and neuter.
BelleMendes 1 month ago
I still have hope that my generation will work like hell to try and undo all the s**t that the ones before us have made
LynzCatastrophe 1 month ago
A long slide away, the recourse war. It'll have more consequences than you know of, more than my comment. We'll be in trouble for climate change, food shortage, all that. Dying of lack of shelter, food, killing each other in war. But this planet does have a tipping point. Say we do happen to get a chance to try again. We will never get farther than the farm age. Recourses that allowed that evolution in history are already at a record breaking low. We need those if we ever get to try again, and we won't have it. This'll is be a thing centuries from now, but the future isn't sci-fi, it's more historic.
Randy Smith 1 month ago (edited)
There will continue to be enough housing to house all homeless people in the US, and enough food to feed every person there, and yet American society will continue to allow homelessness and starvation anyways
frank behnsen 1 month ago
I’ll be dead. That’s nowhere near the privilege of never even having existed, but it’s fine with me. Organic life and consciousness don’t go together very well. In fact this combination really sucks. The formula “Feed. Fück. Fade Away.” is definitely not my idea of fun.
Patty Panda 1 month ago
We will live like Star Trek depicts, where hunger and wars on earth are no longer, the environment is clean, we accept one another for who they are and for their capabilities, and we explore space. Minus Kahn, of course
MondoLogo 1 month ago (edited)
"The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun. Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us." - Ecclesiastes 1:9-10 AI is just a tool of change, which there have been since fire and the wheel. There will always be wars and rumors of war. Global warming may make the planet uninhabitable - for certain species. Even a nuclear war will leave the mountains and the oceans. Humanity is not the earth, we are just tenants, and we're not likely to get our damage deposit back.
Apatheist Account2 1 month ago
Things really don't change this quickly. 30 years ago - 1994? Is the world so different? Then before that, 1964, 1934 - of course there were changes, but never as advanced as sci-fi would lead you to expect. I expect the pace of change to step up now that we have the internet, but I don't expect it to keep accelerating.
CanadianDimes 1 month ago
Patrick Rothfuss will keep insisting he’s going to finish the name of the wind series in [insert year here] while never doing any actual writing.
Verena 1 month ago
Now it is revealed how easy Kia cars could be hacked, people still clinge to convenience. Convenience always comes with a high price, and most of the times people do realise too late that it is not only some poor nobody far away hit, but they themselves. Another example of old-fashioned beats modern: An 17 year old V70 is easier, safer and quicker to operate with the buttons than any modern electrificated car with screens only. https://www.vibilagare.se/english/physical-buttons-outperform-touchscreens-new-cars-test-finds . They are of course biased, but seen that the EU will demand that five core functions must be buttons, otherwise the safety rating will be lowered, there seems to be some truth in it.
Endcensorship 1 month ago
Deep fake will have destroyed politics by making it so you can trust anything you see
Chich 1 month ago
Not too much of a stretch to expect another Carrington level event. Huge solar storm that wipes out our electrical grid and most of the electronics. Wake up one morning and it will be "Welcome to 1735!" and no one knows how to do anything useful. A planet of beings whose main skill is (was) to stare at and tap on a f*****g screen.
Verena 1 month ago (edited)
Additionally to losing patience, humanity is very busy to make itself obsolete. AI is taking over, the reasoning is "nobody needs to do repetetive and dull jobs any more". The clever heads forget, that not everybody of the 8 billion people is smart as hell, and "dull and repetetive jobs" (whatever the definition is, most jobs are like this) are necessary to pay for housing, food, clothing and health. So if there are no jobs anymore, most humans are obsolete. So there is no reason at all in investing in life-lengthening measures and medication. We have enough AI in most countries, stop it.
Verena 1 month ago (edited)
Just this morning (it is morning here) I read an article in the papers about streaming taking over more and more, and that traditional tv is loosing ground. As result the Netflixens are raising their fees, making it more difficult to pay for it. The point of it: The people living in a modern world are getting addicted to convenience and getting immediately what they want. One neat thing one learned back then when a new episode was only on once a week, and only on that one moment, was patience. The only chance for binge watching where saturday morning cartoons (for the US, here tv didn't broadcast before 9, and then it was school stuff until 12) or after video cassettes were invented and affordable, watching pre-recorded tapes.
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