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One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.

Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.

What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.

So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.

#1

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.

The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.

seaboardist , Anna Shvets Report

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#3

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More extreme weather events.

Left-Middle7392 , Johannes Plenio Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.

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#4

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.

000-Luck , Kampus Production Report

#5

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Resource wars.

RVBlumensaat , cottonbro studio Report

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Angela B
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

This. Countries at war over water, food supply and the like. Ppl going to Mars at war over mining rights there too. Do you want any of the douche billion-aires in control of your oxygen on Mars? Nah.

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#6

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.

zerbey , Pixabay Report

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Chris
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What? All you have to do is what the governor of Florida did and get a a law passed that no state government official/document can use the words "climate change", and everything will be OK. /S

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#7

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.

johnnybiggles , freepik Report

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StrangeOne
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

If only the older generations could look back fondly when we were teens, and how our elders didn't understand us. We may not speak the same slang and listen to the same music, but the sentiment is the same.

MondoLogo
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Kids these days, amirite? "“[Young people] are high-minded because they have not yet been humbled by life, nor have they experienced the force of circumstances. They think they know everything, and are always quite sure about it.” - Aristotle

Mary Green
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Said every older generation about every younger generation since the beginning of human history

Lea S.
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Some have, I'm 39. I have nieces, nephews and people that are dear to me in the younger generations. I can understand them, ask them things, enjoy their music, etc. I can also understand my grandma and grandpa, and enjoy their music. Anyone who wants to write off an entire generation (in my opinion) is just being jerky.

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Lou Cam
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Time to make some friends outside your narrow age group!

XanthippeⓐWulf🇨🇦️️🇬🇧
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Agreed! I have friends of varying ages because I firmly believe you can learn interesting things & perspectives from those younger or older. I'm a millennial, but I enjoy a wide range of music, & can easily keep up with slang. I can also say the same for people I know that are "Boomers," "Gen X," "Gen Z," because they are open to it🤷‍♀️

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Sue Denham
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

We don't need to understand. It's their own language. The music, I'm happy with.

Jason
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Fun fact it's been like this through all the generations

Jp
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Good lord do you remember anything about your teenage years?! Try Rancid or Nirvana on volume 11 or maybe or Dr Dre and Snoop for lyric selection and new verbiage. Do you remember 90’s pop?!? Ace of Bass. All the needs to be said.

Broadredpanda
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Youth slang getting into a dictionary is already happening and it's getting worse!

️ ️~ lefty libra️ ~
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1 month ago

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Michael Largey
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Somehow, my students didn't manage to slip much of their slang into their answers on my differential calculus tests. I didn't know whether their music was good or bad because I never listened to it.

Jane Alexander
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Love the old stuff, 'specially 'Reefer Songs of the 30's and '40's', 'He May Be Your Good Man Friday, But He's Mine on Saturday Night' (Margret Young, 1929?) 'Was I drunk, was he handsome and did Mawma give me hell" Georgia White. Explore the 'classics' with me if you dare. J

simon smith
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Definitely, but it's the same with our parents, Everything must move on 🎶🎶🎶🎶🎤🎼

Stannous Flouride
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

In 1978 National Lampoon ran this amazing cover. I saved it for years. It's by Mara McAfee and the mom is actually Ms Shield's mother. 692d60d646...557929.jpg 692d60d6461f7476df3b72564326c1a2-66fcd79557929.jpg

Boris Mohar
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

At least they will not be wearing ripped jeans like some forsaken castaway.

ArcanaPanda
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I still f*****g hate the pop music that came out in the late '90s - early 2010s, with very few exceptions. I started warming up to pop music again when it became less about svengali-directed mass market, assembly line faux "music" and returned to individual, organic artists who were in it for the artistry. Adele did a lot of good there and so did Lady Gaga, and Chappel Roan and Billie Eilish are continuing that wonderful legacy. I think the kids from the past decade or so have had admirable tastes in music and feel happy I can breathe easily knowing the future of music is once again in good hands.

Jane Alexander
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

the 'music busines' has gone to hell. They've even admitted they're after a 'look' or whatever mess and don't give a sh*t about actual sound, talent or anythinfg else relevant

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Grey Beard
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I played some music to my 10yr old that I listened to when I was a 10yr old and now she proudly rocks a Duran Duran t-shirt.

LynzCatastrophe
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Got news for you, it will be happening. I only know Chapelle Roan music because my nephew likes it. He's 5. I have no chance and finally understand why my dad didn't know anything I started listening to when I was 10.

Aidan Pite
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I STILL don't understand MY youth's slang, and our music is massive amounts of garbage.

Lea S.
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Goodness - how hard is it to use a little context when communicating with the youth?

Barry
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

55-year-old here. The secret to staying young is to stay current with music.

frank behnsen
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

That’s the easier part of it. The not-so easy part of it is them being without a clue who Miles Davis was. Or Diz and Bird. Hell, they won’t even ever heard of P-Funk and da P.E. That really sucks.

Verfin22
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Please stop making up new words for something that already has a definition. Crack open a dictionary ffs. I haven't listened to modern radio in I don't know how long. And no not a boomer(44).

Tom Brincefield
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

People have been making up new words since we started using words. That's how we keep expanding our language and our minds.

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_-DungeonKeeper-_
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1 month ago

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Music already suck and the popular artists make concieted and boasting "raps" with questionable morals, that's why I like stuff like Ivycomb and the chalkeaters and yobkagor and stuff none of this bull we have on radios and the top 100s today just songs with stories behjnd them, yon puts characters in every song there are theories behind them, the chalkeaters are fudgin hilarious and that's what music should be

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#8

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The retirement age will have gone up again.

Petrus_Rock , Pixabay Report

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Orysha
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

There will be no retirement age, you'll be forced to work until death unless you're rich.

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#11

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World War 3

I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.

We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change

Water/Food SHortage

Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)

AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).

Lephas , asim alnamat Report

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#12

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.

My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.

**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.

Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.

Hayred , Edward Jenner Report

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#14

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.

Cinner21 , Pixabay Report

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Beak Hookage
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1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.

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#15

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.

OnceWasRampant , Pixabay Report

#16

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.

MudNo6683 , RF._.studio Report

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Lou Cam
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.

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#17

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.

TheJewHammer14 , Jorge Zapata Report

#18

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Political tensions will increase over climate migration.

DiscountCultural5520 , Rosemary Ketchum Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.

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#19

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.

sketchy_painting , Vidal Balielo Jr. Report

#20

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The rich, getting richer.

urandomguy , freepik Report

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Steve Robert
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.

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#21

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some animals going extinct.

giuli_wild , Laura The Explaura Report

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G A
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Animals and plants go extinct daily. It's just you don't notice as they are small.

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#22

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We’ll all be using tech that seems like sci-fi now.

deinekimfischer , cottonbro studio Report

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Zephyr343
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Isn't that usually how the progress of tech goes? Hard to see it moving backwards

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#23

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People reminiscing that life was better 30 years ago.

Dr-Maturin , SHVETS production Report

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#25

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.

pixiemiooy , Cats Coming Report

#26

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.

Nice_Leg_7622 , freepik Report

#27

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.

Best_Barracuda451 , Molnár Tamás Photography™ Report

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liam newton-harding
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

“Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.

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#28

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World hunger, food deficit.

True_beauty00 , cottonbro studio Report

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Fishpanda (fish/panda/it)
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.

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#29

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.

ForeverRepulsive2934 , Leena Report

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Griffy
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Google- A wet bulb event is a dangerous combination of high heat and humidity that can cause people to overheat and die. The wet bulb effect occurs when the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C or higher, and the humidity is very high.

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#30

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.

lacaxiqekifika , Tom Swinnen Report

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#31

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.

BinaryPill , Lara Jameson Report

#32

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.

Budget_Marionberry78 , eberhard grossgasteiger Report

#33

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More people will live in vertical farms.

MichelleHill770e2 , freepik Report

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G A
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

People will have their own as long as water resources keep up.

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#35

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Let's be a bit optimistic

Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.

Glxblt76 , ThisIsEngineering Report

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#36

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People will still be complaining about something.

Vikinggold672021 , benzoix Report

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Skara Brae
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.

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#37

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.

Willy_cutie_ , Anna Shvets Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.

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#38

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.

giligili__ , Pixabay Report

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Sky Render
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.

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#42

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Me getting married.

I have faith.

lan0028456 , Emma Bauso Report

#43

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

KmetPalca , Mario Spencer Report

#44

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Technology getting even weirder than it already is.

VibrantTaro , Harsch Shivam Report

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Tabitha
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What matters most is how it ends up being used. If used to benefit us all, OK. If used to destroy most of us, f**k NO.

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#45

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.

schneebitch , Ahmed akacha Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.

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#47

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Fusion power plants being 30 years away.

inkseep1 , Johannes Plenio Report

#50

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another sequel to Frozen.

god-ducks-are-cute , freepik Report

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