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One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.

Interestingly, the "experts" struggled to perform better than "dart-throwing chimps," and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.

What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.

So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they've received.

#1

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.

The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.

seaboardist , Anna Shvets Report

#3

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More extreme weather events.

Left-Middle7392 , Johannes Plenio Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

We just had Hurricane Helene, which caused massive flooding and power outages and, as I write this, over 50 deaths. Lucky me came through it OK.

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#4

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer's. At least I hope so.

000-Luck , Kampus Production Report

#5

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Resource wars.

RVBlumensaat , cottonbro studio Report

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Angela B
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

This. Countries at war over water, food supply and the like. Ppl going to Mars at war over mining rights there too. Do you want any of the douche billion-aires in control of your oxygen on Mars? Nah.

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#6

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we're already heading towards it and there's really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.

zerbey , Pixabay Report

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Chris
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What? All you have to do is what the governor of Florida did and get a a law passed that no state government official/document can use the words "climate change", and everything will be OK. /S

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#7

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality I won't understand the youth's slang, and their music will suck.

johnnybiggles , freepik Report

#8

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The retirement age will have gone up again.

Petrus_Rock , Pixabay Report

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Orysha
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

There will be no retirement age, you'll be forced to work until death unless you're rich.

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#11

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World War 3

I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.

We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change

Water/Food SHortage

Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)

AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won't happen).

Lephas , asim alnamat Report

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#12

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.

My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.

**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.

Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.

Hayred , Edward Jenner Report

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#14

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.

Cinner21 , Pixabay Report

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Beak Hookage
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

To me it seems all too obvious that he's written himself into a corner and completely lost interest in the whole thing.

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#15

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.

OnceWasRampant , Pixabay Report

#16

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.

MudNo6683 , RF._.studio Report

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Lou Cam
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

And a large portion of the Earth especially around the equator will become uninhabitable. Those people won't just sit there and die, they will try and move to safety. Already happening in Europe. The West has a duty to take care of them as they're the primary cause of the catastrophe but you have governments like mine (UK) actively trying to reject and criminalise people just trying to survive.

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#17

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.

TheJewHammer14 , Jorge Zapata Report

#18

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Political tensions will increase over climate migration.

DiscountCultural5520 , Rosemary Ketchum Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

No surprise here. Anti-immigrant attitudes and propaganda, plus the possibility of climate refugees carrying highly contagious diseases, will stir the s--t pot.

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#19

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.

sketchy_painting , Vidal Balielo Jr. Report

#20

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The rich, getting richer.

urandomguy , freepik Report

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Steve Robert
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

That's already happening now. But in 30 years, the 99% will have eaten all the 1%.

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#21

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some animals going extinct.

giuli_wild , Laura The Explaura Report

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G A
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Animals and plants go extinct daily. It's just you don't notice as they are small.

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#22

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We’ll all be using tech that seems like sci-fi now.

deinekimfischer , cottonbro studio Report

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Zephyr343
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Isn't that usually how the progress of tech goes? Hard to see it moving backwards

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#23

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People reminiscing that life was better 30 years ago.

Dr-Maturin , SHVETS production Report

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#25

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks... just a hunch.

pixiemiooy , Cats Coming Report

#26

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.

Nice_Leg_7622 , freepik Report

#27

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.

Best_Barracuda451 , Molnár Tamás Photography™ Report

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liam newton-harding
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

“Invest”. A number of…very wealthy…Nations have already tried…and failed. The money, cost, and technology is insurmountable, compared to the alternatives. The only people that got rich were the “designers”, who disappeared with most of the money.

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#28

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality World hunger, food deficit.

True_beauty00 , cottonbro studio Report

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Fishpanda (fish/panda/it)
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

However, we have enough food to feed the world right now but those who can do something about getting the food to people that need it aren't.

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#29

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.

ForeverRepulsive2934 , Leena Report

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Griffy
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Google- A wet bulb event is a dangerous combination of high heat and humidity that can cause people to overheat and die. The wet bulb effect occurs when the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C or higher, and the humidity is very high.

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#30

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.

lacaxiqekifika , Tom Swinnen Report

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#31

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.

BinaryPill , Lara Jameson Report

#32

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.

Budget_Marionberry78 , eberhard grossgasteiger Report

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Chris
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Hmm, maybe if you include a certain moon, and understand that "life" isn't only just "complex life".

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Lance LaRocque
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

The biggest problem I see is timing. If the universe is billions of years old. It could have happened hundreds of times but we might be the only ones left or we could be the first with hundreds to come. We might never know as things could happen millions of years apart and/or too many light years apart.

RagDollLali
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

If aliens have been able to see anything that's been going on on this planet for the past fifty years or so they're probably going to try their best to avoid us much longer than that...

Colleen Glim
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

The idea that we are the only “intelligent” life in the universe is not only arrogant, it’s ridiculous. If evolution can happen here, it can happen on other planets as well

frank behnsen
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What kind of life are we talking about? Bacteria? Chances are high. Here’s the scenario for higher forms of organic life to develop over the course of billions of years: what we need is a small star – one that burns down its fuel slowly. This star must be in a rather peaceful region of its galaxy, outside the reach of supernovae and gamma ray bursts. Next, any planets that built from that star’s accretion disk must be within the limits of a “habitable zone”. In terms of carbon-based life this includes the permanent existance of fluid water on the planet’s surface. Next, we need time. A lot of time, something like billions of rounds this little planet will go around its “home star”. And then there’s literally billions of galaxies in the universe where this might or might not happen, without humankind ever being able to even notice. Because it’s too far away. This universe is way too large for us to ever know what’s going on in other galaxies. It’s beyond us. Way, way beyond.

Tabitha
Community Member
1 month ago (edited) DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Or that life will discover us. Hopefully for good.

WindySwede
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

No? If you have that evidence you could probably win Nobel price, and perhaps several other!

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EJN
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

The money to back the science is now more in the hands of private companies than NASA or other nationally-backed entities, so research will not be funded. SETI is the best bet for a while longer. Privately-backed space exploration will only deal with searching for resources so backers can, of course, make more money.

Hassel Davidhoff
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Maybe they'll find microbial life on Europa but that is likely about it.

der sebbl
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

We already did. It may be 'just' bacteria, but it's life. On titan, iirc

LynzCatastrophe
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I keep telling you people, you don't WANT to discover new life. Because new life could discover you.

Griffy
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Didn't they already find signs of ancient bacteria or something on Mars already?

Moonie Pinkslip
Community Member
1 month ago (edited)

This comment is hidden. Click here to view.

WHO. FRIKKIN'. CARES!!! Can't deal with this one yet, the doofuses!!!

Kangaroo
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I care. A lot of stuff we study in space helps us here on earth. Mars taught us about dust devils and flying in an atmosphere with low friction. Venus taught us about acid rain because we could study it in its most extreme manifestation. Thinking we shouldn’t study space because we have enough problems on this planet to worry about is small-minded - there’s over 8 billion of us on earth, we have enough people to study space AND solve earth’s problems.

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#33

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality More people will live in vertical farms.

MichelleHill770e2 , freepik Report

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G A
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

People will have their own as long as water resources keep up.

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#35

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Let's be a bit optimistic

Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.

Glxblt76 , ThisIsEngineering Report

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#36

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality People will still be complaining about something.

Vikinggold672021 , benzoix Report

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Skara Brae
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Dissatisfaction drives progress, but increased complexity of life creates more things to be dissatisfied about.

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#37

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.

Willy_cutie_ , Anna Shvets Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

Melting permafrost is releasing viruses and bacteria against which humans have no defense.

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#38

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.

giligili__ , Pixabay Report

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Sky Render
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm still waiting for the inevitable day when some brilliant monster develops a weaponized disease that targets plant life. And then completely underestimates just how easily their disease spreads. There's no better way to wipe out an entire nation (or the entire planet) than to wipe out a significant chunk of plant life, and plants can't fight back.

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#42

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Me getting married.

I have faith.

lan0028456 , Emma Bauso Report

#43

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality We reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

KmetPalca , Mario Spencer Report

#44

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Technology getting even weirder than it already is.

VibrantTaro , Harsch Shivam Report

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Tabitha
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

What matters most is how it ends up being used. If used to benefit us all, OK. If used to destroy most of us, f**k NO.

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#45

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it's better than our current situation or not, I don't know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.

schneebitch , Ahmed akacha Report

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Freya the Wanderer
Community Member
1 month ago DotsCreated by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017

I'm glad you're so optimistic. Nothing wrong with that, but on the other hand we do have to face reality and prepare for the worst.

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#47

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Fusion power plants being 30 years away.

inkseep1 , Johannes Plenio Report

#50

50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality Another sequel to Frozen.

god-ducks-are-cute , freepik Report

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